5 July Risk of severe gales this afternoon
July 5, 2022
Tuesday morning update
We can be thankful for the nice weather we had yesterday, because today it will be wetter with upcoming storms. A storm complex moving out of the Great Lakes will arrive during the peak afternoon, allowing it to reach its highest potential as it traverses central Maryland. This brings with it the potential for destructive weather.
NOAA Severe Storm Risk
The low risk of severe storms means there is about a 15% chance that a storm will be severe. That could bring winds in excess of 90 km/h, large hail more than 1 inch in diameter, and even a single tornado.
Any storm can bring dangerous lightning and flash floods.
Surface weather in the morning
Satellite loop 4:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m
Here we can see the complex that traverses Lower Michigan, which will dip in our southeast direction later today.
Afternoon temperatures at 3:00 p.m
I chose this snapshot to show the contrast between the 90’s in metropolitan areas and the 70’s just cooled by the inland storms.
Radar simulation snapshot at 16:00
This particular HRRR model suggests that the peak complex reaches central Maryland and the Baltimore metropolitan area. I will again suggest a buffer of 1 hour so keep in mind that the region is affected between 3pm and 5pm.
Compare two models, but this will probably play out between the two proposals.
HRRR model 12:00 to 22:00
This model focuses on a main group of afternoon storms. This behaves like a meso low with potential for widespread heavy storm behavior. Multiple warnings may be issued.
NAM 3 km model 12:00 to 22:00
This model shows more activity in the early afternoon but less intense complex on the 4:00 p.m. time frame…
TODAY July 5th
Normal low in Baltimore: 66ºF
Record 55ºF in 2014
Normal high in Baltimore: 89ºF
Record 102ºF 1999
Storm simulation: Tuesday to Saturday
We will be caught in the pattern of scattered showers and storms almost every day. This does NOT promise you will be hit as many of these will be scattered showers and as we saw over the weekend these may fall in some areas whilst skipping others.
7 day forecast
Start planning your kayaking day now
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 through November 30
NOAA 2022 hurricane forecast – back above normal
Prognosis from Colorado State University
Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
NOAA Study: Air Pollution Reduction INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropics History: Origin Region Maps every 10 days
Current storm reports
May 22 Hail and wind damage
May 16 Large hail videos and storm tracking map
*Disclaimer due to frequently asked questions:
I am aware that there are some spelling and grammatical errors. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you might have missed it:
I have dyslexia and found it out in my sophomore year at Cornell University. I didn’t stop myself from earning my Meteorology degree and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.
I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell checker on my computer sometimes does a wrong to make it worse.
All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor who can check my work when i need it and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept that and maybe proves that what you read is really mine…
It’s part of my charm.