July 27, 2022
Update Wednesday afternoon
We are still below the Influence Line that will attempt to send showers our way. Also known as the quasi-stationary front, this near-stalled front features waves of disturbances that can trigger clusters or lines of rain and storms.
These are not easy to track, especially in the current environment of poorly performing short-range computer modeling. That’s why I didn’t make any “suggestions” but some kind of promises. Yesterday, for example, it didn’t come off completely.
Today looks like one of those pulses will shift with a series of showers and thunderstorms. We can already see showers approaching (at 2:00 p.m.).
In metropolitan areas, you can expect it between 4:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. at best. Below is the comparison to show the similarities and differences between the NAM 3 Km and HRRR models as well as the Love Radar and Lightning Widget which you can follow right here.
afternoon build-up
Doppler radar snapshot
Some rain showers are already forming in the mountains south of Hagerstown. Watch this region shift eastward…which is closer to the NAM 3km time below.
Short term prognosis
The good news is that there is some consistency between the two short-range models. The difference is in the timing. Here we see storms developing into the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan areas.
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NAM 3 km model: (earlier) around 5 p.m
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HRRR Model: (later) Closer to 7 p.m
View the animation of each product under the live radar/lightning widget
NAM 3 km (formerly for metropolitan areas)
HRRR model (2 hours later for metro areas)
Live lightning and radar widget
Radar simulations..
Here we can see both models in motion supporting a brief flare and then scattered showers through midnight.
NAM 3 km: 2:00 p.m. to midnight
HRRR model 14:00 to midnight
NOTE:
Maryland Trek 9 begins 4 days from today!
I’ll continue to post weather daily, but my attention will shift next week:
My team of volunteers will hike and bike 329 from the top of the Wisp to Ocean City in 7 days. We will share children’s stories in and after cancer treatment and need your support!
This includes donations (100% goes to programs at Just In Power Kids)
Just like, comment and/or share posts on Facebook.
(Click on the images for event information)
7 day forecast
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 through November 30
NOAA 2022 hurricane forecast – back above normal
Prognosis from Colorado State University
Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
related posts
NOAA Study: Air Pollution Reduction INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropics History: Origin Region Maps every 10 days
Current storm reports
May 22 Hail and wind damage
May 16 Large hail videos and storm tracking map
*Disclaimer due to frequently asked questions:
I am aware that there are some spelling and grammatical errors. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you might have missed it:
I have dyslexia and found it out in my sophomore year at Cornell University. I didn’t stop myself from earning my Meteorology degree and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.
I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell checker on my computer sometimes does a wrong to make it worse.
All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor who can check my work when i need it and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept that and maybe proves that what you read is really mine…
It’s part of my charm.
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