My first call for snowfall Sunday February 13th
February 11, 2022
Update on Friday afternoon
This isn’t an easy post when it’s sunny and temperatures are in the 60’s, but I have to address Sunday’s snow. After all, it’s been talked about all week, and we’ll be in for an abrupt return to winter.
When we have these winter warm-ups before a snow event, it’s very handy to consider if the ground can just melt the snow when it arrives. That’s a consideration worth applying here. But we will also get snow overnight from Saturday to Sunday morning when the temperature drops. So we have the optimal counterforce to get a sticking.
Let’s look at temperatures first, then a model snow animation, followed by my first call for snowfall.
Temperatures 1 p.m. Friday afternoon
This warm afternoon and warm day tomorrow will complicate bonding. But as many of us remember, in our region we can easily flick the switch from here to snow.
Temperature forecast animation
2 p.m. Saturday until Sunday 7 p.m
Saturday high temperatures will be in the mid 50’s then watch the drop into Sunday. I know the images scroll quickly, so check out the snaps below.
Sunday midnight – 00:00
The freeze line is approaching the north/west suburbs of Baltimore.
Sunday morning – 7 a.m
The Frost Line advanced south of Annapolis and Easton. It will take time for the ground to cool, but snow will fall to help. Depending on the snowfall before 8:00 a.m., there is then the possibility of overcoming the warmer ground before the position of the sun becomes too high (after 8:00 a.m.).
Sunday noon – 12 p.m
Sunday evening – 7 p.m
simulation timeline animation
NAM 3 km
I switched to this higher resolution short range model which works best within 48 hours. It was also the model that correctly labeled recent ice events (and delayed cooling).
Saturday 10pm to Sunday 7pm
As a result, the initial snow develops earlier or just before it falls. But with the temperatures dropping, I wouldn’t consider any impact until well past midnight.
Note: I will have an hourly timeline slider in my next report.
how much snow My first call
Please note this is for what can be measured.
- What actually lies and remains on the pavement is probably a little less for you to shovel or plow.
- The greatest effect should occur in the morning.
- Snow stays longer into the afternoon on Delmarva, but the warmer ground will play a bigger role there as it may become stuck.
What do you say?
I love (and hate) this line. But I decided to adopt it to use for the other models and the National Weather Service. I’ll collect what I can and include it in my next report.
This is NOT a big event but it will be a dramatic change from today’s warm day. The biggest impact should be on Sunday morning. The NAM later lets the snow linger on Delmarva into the afternoon, but their bottom should be warmer and rather wet roads…
However, the falling temperatures allow for a chance of icing in the evening. We can address that as we get closer.
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ALL FITF GEAR
FITF STORM SNOW
Winter Outlook Series:
My call for snowfall
Review of Last Winter: My Old Outlook and Your Grades of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Increasing sunspots in the solar cycle indicate more snow
Comparison of 4 different Farmer’s Almanacs: majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook – but read the fine print
Signals for an early start of winter in November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easter can provide a clue to the winter La Nina pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
*Disclaimer due to frequently asked questions:
I am aware that there are some spelling and grammatical errors. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you might have missed it:
I have dyslexia and found it out in my sophomore year at Cornell University. I didn’t stop myself from earning my Meteorology degree and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.
I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell checker on my computer sometimes does a wrong to make it worse.
All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor who can check my work when i need it and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept that and maybe proves that what you read is really mine…
It’s part of my charm.
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