Sunday February 6th – Morning report
Have you noticed a trend with these Sundays? Talk about a pattern, this is the fourth Sunday in a row with much of our region starting out in the teens or colder.
Today’s weather will be calm but the cold is very different for possible freezing rain on Monday morning. It’s very different from what we missed last Friday and it’s worth mentioning.
headlines
- today: Cold but quiet
- Monday: Morning may bring freezing rain
- Monday night: Cool rain Delmarva.
- Most of this week: Sunny days and mild.
- Next weekend: Saturday and Sunday will be colder
Sunday morning cold patterns
Here are the latest low temperatures for Sunday morning in Baltimore’s BWI
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January 6 = 15ºF
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January 23 = 15ºF
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January 30 = 14ºF
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Feb 6 = 18ºF (since midnight)
Morning temperatures at 7am
A slight pressure on the thermometer. BWI has warmed to 21ºF at sunrise.
Set up tomorrow
High pressure is in control and will keep our skies sunny today.
This will also allow a small system along the coast to head north tonight.
Just cold enough “after midnight” to allow frosting. (See below)
afternoon temperatures
temperatures on Monday morning
Monday freezing rain:
Why believe that?
I get it! To some, this may seem like a crying wolf. But this is different.
This is the NAM 3 km model. It’s the one who pinpointed the cold air delay last Friday and held off the icing on the cake.
This is a different configuration. It’s not rain that turns to ice. This is how it starts, overnight on cold and dry ground. This is more optimal for ice formation on the roads.
Also, remember last Friday and two weeks ago you had a freeze delay? That was due to a last moment “shift to the West”. Do you remember the coastal blizzard? This has extended the heavy snow over Delmarva due to a late “west shift”. It just wasn’t enough for metro areas.
This event is ALSO based on the “Farther West” track…
animation
Monday 00:00 to Monday 15:00
*This is the system that looked like snow last week, then adopted… Now it’s back in a weakened and warmer form…
Here we see just enough humidity and cold air to create a glaze on the streets at midnight in the afternoon into the morning.
- Pink = freezing rain
- Blue = snow
- Green = rain
Monday snapshot at 7am
Here is the point of concern at daybreak.
COMPARE WITH THE OPPOSITE POINT
ECMWF model
This does NOT indicate a widespread icing event. The GFS is also silent, which is why your weather app might not show it.
National Weather Service: Explanation
I’m not alone in this. Here is the NWS statement trying to show their caution while getting the message across.
Monday afternoon temperatures
Slow push to thaw later in the afternoon
Rain Monday night: Delmarva
This is how the European model treats this event with rain from Monday night to Tuesday morning.
Weather Almanac: Climate data at BWI
TODAY February 6th
Seasonal Snow: 13.3”;
+4.7″ ABOVE AVERAGE
Normal low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record of +1ºF in 1895
Normal high in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record 72ºF 2008
looking ahead
Winter has even more to offer…
In the middle of the month we will see another burst of arctic air in the jet stream. We can see this development at the end of the net week leading into Valentine’s Day.
Here is the European Jetstream loop
No promise for Valentine’s Day specifically, but that’s in the wintry weather window to visit.
7 day forecast
This will be a quiet week with temperatures pushing the 40s to almost 50ºF.
Next weekend comes the next cold air surge. It may arrive on Saturday with a mix of rain and snow, then arctic air returns into next week on Sunday.
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SEE ALSO
ALL FITF GEAR
FITF STORM SNOW
Winter Outlook Series:
My call for snowfall
Review of Last Winter: My Old Outlook and Your Grades of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Increasing sunspots in the solar cycle indicate more snow
Comparison of 4 different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook – but read the fine print
Signals for an early start of winter in November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easter can provide a clue to the winter La Nina pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
*Disclaimer due to frequently asked questions:
I am aware that there are some spelling and grammatical errors. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you might have missed it:
I have dyslexia and found it out in my sophomore year at Cornell University. I didn’t stop myself from earning my Meteorology degree and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.
I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell checker on my computer sometimes does a wrong to make it worse.
All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor who can check my work when i need it and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept that and maybe proves that what you read is really mine…
It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
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